Decision impact visibility and generating all possible future scenarios is now an imperative for critical decision-making.
AI technologies such as LLM, are powerful tools that have demonstrated impressive capabilities. However, they are not entirely immune to generating inaccurate or misleading outputs. These “hallucinations” occur when the AI models generate content that appears plausible but may lack accuracy or fail to consider contextual factors.
AI-Simulation technology emerges as a beacon of supply chain resilience and confident decision-making. It provides reliable and accurate predictions, even in unprecedented contexts and for strategies that have not yet been tested.
AI Simulation is the convergence of several types of AI, including complex system simulation, machine learning, statistics and optimization. It provides powerful techniques that can be used, alone or combined, in order to address decision-making problems in an increasingly complex and uncertain world.
At its core is complex system simulation, which is the process of using computer models to imitate the operation of a real (or hypothetical) system or process. This digital replica is called a Simulation Twin and replicates the dynamic functioning of an organization’s complete operational system.
Decision makers find in AI Simulation a technology that supports the complexity of their organizations and addresses greater uncertainty: every impact and cascading effect of a disruption or a decision can be simulated, including impacts that have not been experienced before.
This technology provides a major benefit for the critical decisions they have to make: it brings better explainability of results and better reliability with reduced hallucinations compared to machine learning techniques. It has the capability to generate unlimited scenarios of an organization’s possible behaviors in response to decisions or events.
Unlike traditional approaches that treat AI and Simulation as separate disciplines, Cosmo Tech uniquely combines AI and simulation on a single platform. This allows us to leverage the power of simulation and human knowledge expertise with AI algorithms, enabling more sophisticated analyses and providing more accurate results to enhance decision making.
Simulation is a model-centric AI and avoids the hallucination issue due to its inherent design and methodology based on human knowledge expertise and a controlled environment where different scenarios can be tested rigorously against real-world observations to ensure their accuracy. These results are provided by a simulation; they are auditable, can be understood and traced back to the business rules within the simulation. This is unlike most other AI tools which lack transparency.
By harnessing the strengths of both data-based AI and knowledge-based AI, Cosmo tech offers a range of unique capabilities that differentiate us from other solutions on the market. Guided by AI algorithms, thousands of simulations are automatically generated and optimized until the best course of action is determined in response to given KPIs.
AI Simulation is effective for decision making because it is reliable and explainable. It surpasses typical machine learning techniques by starting with an expert understanding of cause and effect and producing reliable results. Simulation also allows for model testing and adjustment, improving prediction accuracy and understanding. If business needs or decision parameters change, the model can be quickly adjusted to reflect this.
Modern businesses are highly interconnected, and ignoring this complexity often leads to suboptimal outcomes or outright failures. Cosmo Tech technology uniquely models the entire ecosystem, incorporating heterogeneous elements across the system. It enables the modeling of dynamics and behaviors of each sub-system, their interactions, and the cascading effects over time, avoiding unexpected consequences from actions in different areas of the organization.
In a real system, unexpected events may occur due to the high complexity and uncertainty of the real-world. Simulation allows the analysis of a system under abnormal conditions, a rare event or a completely new design which is impossible with the data-modeling approach.
Simulation is not based on past data only but on the dynamics of the underlying systems of the organization, providing a comprehensive view of all possible and probable futures, including the inherent uncertainties linked to today’s complex environments. Knowing these features helps organizations navigate through the complexity and uncertainty.
In addition to answering what-if questions with simulation, Supply chain executives need to know how best to get to a desired goal. AI Simulation goes beyond data insights by providing prescribed actions to optimize target performance indicators in areas such as supply chain efficiency, profit, production capacity or CO2 emissions. It is a powerful approach to understand the causes behind a business problem, predict future outcomes and recommend optimum decisions.
Advanced Simulation Twins further provide prescriptive “how-to” optimizations that help supply chain managers discover the course of action that best meets their needs. Users can choose among a range of KPIs (e.g. efficiency, cost, environmental needs), then use the simulation twin to discover the optimal action plan and implementation strategy for their business.
Combining advanced simulation with other AI techniques, Cosmo Tech AI-Simulation Copilot and Simulation-Twin software delivers new predictive and prescriptive capabilities with the reliability demanded for critical decision making in large complex organizations. It enables companies to continuously improve performance and resilience at an unprecedented level while ensuring a net-zero emissions trajectory.
We strongly believe that having easy access to AI-simulated data that provides reliable visibility into the future will increasingly play a central role in navigating risks, accelerating decisions, and optimizing choices at each stage of supply chain transformation.
